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Prisoner releases under Raúl Castro raise hope for Cuba | Damas de Blanco
Ladies in White

from the August 30, 2007 edition

Prisoner releases under Raúl Castro raise hope for Cuba
Leader ceded power to his brother last year after
undergoing emergency surgery.
By Howard LaFranchi | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

Washington

When prominent Cuban advocate Francisco Chaviano was
released earlier this month after 13 years in prison, he joined the
growing list of political dissidents set free in the year since Fidel
Castro, sidelined by poor , ceded power to his brother Raúl.

The steady fall in Cuba's population since Raúl
Castro took the reins of power in July 2006 is leading some Cuba experts
to conclude that some kind of new day is dawning on the Caribbean
communist island.

Just don't expect that dawn to break, they add, in anything other than
the slow and cautious manner in which the release of political prisoners
has been carried out.

Still, this year's decline in imprisoned dissidents does appear to be
different from the periodic peaks and valleys over recent decades in
Cuba's political prisoner population – a rising and falling that has
often tracked US policy towards Cuba.

"I don't see this as more of the same up-down, up-down, but as part of a
trend toward the release of more political prisoners," says Wayne Smith,
director of the Cuba Project at the Center for International Policy in
Washington. It's a trend, he adds, that like other glimmers of an
opening-up of the Cuban system, "is going to be happening slowly, very
slowly."

The Havana-based Commission for Human Rights and National
Reconciliation, an illegal but tolerated nongovernmental organization,
reports a fall of more than 20 percent in the number of political
prisoners over a year ago. The total, according to the group, stood at
246 as of June 30, down from 316 in 2006.

The number still represents by far the largest incarceration of
prisoners of conscience of any country in the Western Hemisphere and one
of the highest per capita rates anywhere in the world – leading some
analysts to doubt that anything in Cuba has really changed.

"Yes, they have released some political prisoners, some because they
fulfilled their sentences or others because of their health, but that
doesn't translate into a real shift in the country," says Jaime
Suchlicki, director of the Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American
Studies at the of Miami. "I don't see any let-up in the
repression in Cuba or [in] the harassment of the opposition people."

In some ways, Cuba is less free

Indeed, Dr. Suchlicki says, measures limiting Cubans' access to outside
information sources – such as cutting off private access or
confiscating satellite dishes – have been stepped up. At the same time,
harassment of dissidents by government-organized groups – an old tactic
of the Castro regime – has continued, he adds. Groups like the Rapid
Response Brigade often appear on the scene of impromptu demonstrations
of rights groups like the Ladies in White, an organization of the wives
of political prisoners.

What some experts see is a Cuba on standby, waiting for two shoes to
drop: Fidel Castro's demise (rumors continue that is condition is
deteriorating, though Cuban officials claim he is in fact recuperating
from last year's illness) and the end of Bush's term in
January 2009. "I don't see a big change in the human rights situation,
but I don't see it worsening either," says Uva de Aragón, associate
director of the Cuba Research Institute at Florida International
University. "Like most things in Cuba, it's in a waiting mode."

Change will come slowly

Raúl Castro is unlikely to initiate any major changes anytime soon, both
because such would constitute a rejection of his brother's legacy while
Fidel is still alive, and because he does not wield solitary control of
the island. Some experts note, for example, that longtime Fidel
confidant, reliable hard-liner and former feared interior minister
Ramiro Valdez, has been brought back as communications minister –
"Hardly a guy you'd turn to if you planned to open things up," says
Suchlicki.

But that does not rule out some loosening up and some measures signaling
– to Cubans especially – that change is possible within the Cuban
system. And that is the signal some experts say Raúl is sending by
letting political incarcerations decrease.

"These are significant numbers, but it doesn't represent greater
political opening and greater of speech on the island. It's more
a reaching out to the youth, to academics, people they feel will play a
role in the future, with the first signs of some possible future
opening," says Elsa Falkenberger, a Cuba specialist at the Washington
Office on Latin America.

Some experts say more meaningful reforms in this "standby" period are
likely to take place in the economic sector – the area in which Raúl had
promoted changes in the past.

Youths eager for economic reform

"People in Cuba are waiting for change. They want to live better, they
want better , improvement in supplies, more small-business
ownership, and those were Raúl's ideas in the '90s," says Ms. Aragón,
referring to measures allowing private farmers' markets and small
in-home businesses like hair salons and restaurants.

"Young people especially want to see some opportunities for their
future, and Raúl has seemed to want to respond to that with a more open
economic model," says Ms. Falkenberger. "We just have to remember that
we can't just look at Raúl; others [in leadership] are going to be
involved." Other experts say US action toward Cuba will, as always,
continue to play a key role in the island's evolution.

"The Bush administration's nasty noises are part of the reason for
things moving slowly," says Mr. Smith, who was a longtime State
Department Cuba specialist. "If ever anything positive came out of the
US, I believe we could see much more rapid releases" of political prisoners.

Smith says, for example, that Raúl has hinted at a willingness to open a
dialogue with the US, "but we didn't exactly reciprocate. If anything,
we did the opposite."

Experience suggests Cuba's leadership is likely to wait and see who
occupies the White House after Mr. Bush before making any dramatic
moves. A hint of one path US policy toward Cuba could take in 2009 comes
from Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Christopher Dodd, who
earlier this month called for an end to the US ban on to Cuba.

Saying a policy of "staying the course" on Cuba leaves the US on the
sidelines at a critical moment, Senator Dodd added in a statement. "It
is time to engage before it is too late to have a positive influence on
the political landscape."

http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0830/p01s02-usfp.html

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